Plants are often overlooked in conservation planning, yet they form the foundation of all ecosystems, harnessing the sun’s energy and thus providing nutrition for the entire food chain. Their function as the structural component of habitats also provides shelter and nesting sites for animals, as well as contributing to climate-change mitigation through carbon sequestration. ACC together with its partners, University of York, Missouri Botanical Garden and Tanzania Botanical Research and Conservation Programme has been modelling modelled species distributions based on herbarium specimen label data and on environmental and topographic data from across the Kenya-Tanzania Borderlands. We have modelled species distributions based on herbarium specimen label data and on environmental and topographic data from across the region. The indicator taxa were selected to represent a cross-section of habitat specialisation, abundance, and taxonomy.

Climate predictions for 2025 and 2055 were derived from forecasts made by the International Panel for Climate Change Fourth Assessment (IPCC 2007; IPCC-AR4). For each climate model we used two extremes from the IPCC scenarios of predicted climate change. The first of these represents little change in the current rate of increase in global population and greenhouse gas emissions. The second represents a more positive outlook that describes a convergent world with a stable global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter.

A summary of the major results from the taxa and groups are presented to a Climate Change Workshop held at the Kenya Wildlife Service in February 2009